30 November 2022
19. 2.Risks and Opportunities
2022/23 Risk and Opportunities
Risks as at P6
|
Cost centre name |
Amount £ |
Nature |
Level |
|
PFI |
700,000 |
Additional costs above the £480k incurred and £345k currently forecast on PFI |
Low |
|
Transport |
100,000 |
Current risk is now forecasted and has been mitigated by a contingency transfer. Fuel costs have softened now and milage running according to forecast |
Low |
|
Bluewater |
91,618 |
Lost income from reduced requirement by the centre assumed to apply from 1st September |
Med |
|
Police Pensions |
50,000 |
Risk associated with immediate detriment- due to new guidance, if we pay this, we cannot currently reclaim it. Therefore, this becomes a revenue pressure. Calculated on current average versus amount forecasted |
High |
|
Overtime |
500,000 |
Overtime - due to holding vacancies and the fact that in 21/22 there is an overspend on overtime, the likelihood of that recurring is increased |
Med |
|
Collaborative recharges |
150,000 |
Essex pay award - rejecting 2.1% and asking for £1,900 |
High |
|
Facilities |
75,000 |
£300k in relation to uniform tender of unused Stock that may need to be purchased if new supplier doesn’t buy. Sep / Oct 22. 25% will be immediately written down per stock sheet. Not on outturn |
Med |
|
Gatwick Hub |
TBC |
Unknown at this stage, regional lead collating Q2 returns which will evidence potential additional charges next month |
Low |
|
Inflation |
TBC |
Procurement have advised that they are seeing large contract increases (e.g. 10-12%) on renewal which could impact us this year |
Med |
|
Proactive POLIT & MOSOVO |
TBC |
Subject: SARC Contribution 2022-23 Detail: Uncertainty on SARC contribution to the NHS for 2022-23 and future years. Rob Phillips aware. |
High |
|
Rim equipment |
50,000 |
Early scoping exercise across all 3 divisions with regards to now approved Rim equipment and what the demand for this equipment is likely to be. Will be reviewed in P7 |
Med |
|
Sub Total |
1,716,618 |
|
|
Opportunities as at P6
|
Cost centre name |
Amount £ |
Nature |
Level |
|
PFI |
(874,000) |
Deductions YTD not in forecast and further deductions in unitary charges unknown. Credits for performance failures may be offset by legal and consultancy costs (see Risks) |
Low |
|
Vacancy Factor remaining higher than profile forecast |
(200,000) |
If vacancy factor is higher than forecast, an additional saving will be achieved |
Med |
|
Disposal of IP Addresses |
(2,000,000) |
IP address sale- will depend on treatment of revenue or capital. Could be up to £2m profit |
Med |
|
Vetting Unit |
(49,000) |
Cabinet Office Burden share Q1 & Q2 invoices lower than anticipated full year forecast previously advised, unsure if adjustment will occur at end of year |
Med |
|
Mutual Aid External |
(51,900) |
Potential to claim for investigation into Gillingham football disorder, max £44k. Baton Relay (£5.8k) Op Dance (Surrey) £2.1k |
Med |
|
General |
(382,700) |
Forecast spend £400k but currently only 1 known redundancy so potential Forecast reduction |
Med |
|
PUP uplift |
(860,000) |
For achieving 43 above PUP target |
Med |
|
Mutual Aid External |
(191,929) |
Commonwealth Games deployment of 50-60 officers likely to be £100k+ |
High |
|
Firearms Licencing income |
(25,000) |
At August ACC review it was inferred that income could increase at Q4 22/23 into 23/24, consistent with 5-year cycle |
Med |
|
Mutual Aid External |
(200,000) |
Op London Bridge - awaiting deployment numbers |
High |
|
Police Pensions |
TBC |
Possible rejection of ill health claims and lower than expected immediate detriment payments |
Med |
|
NI increase reversed |
(865,588) |
As per announcement in mini budget |
High |
|
NI increase reversed |
(260,794) |
As per announcement in mini budget |
High |
|
Sub Total |
(5,960,911) |
|
|